Saturday, January 26, 2008

The result of the South Carolina Democratic Primary and the polls

The results (with 99% of the votes counted)
Obama 55.70% (295,091),
Clinton 26.64% (141,128),
Edwards 17.66% (93,552)
Voting in South Carolina was brisk, producing a record turn-out of more than 530,000. By comparison, the turn-out for the 2004 Democratic primary was 280,000.

All the polls, totally failed to predict Obama's support (they underestimated it by 13% (minimum) to 29% (maximum). Most of them were closer to the actual percentages of Clinton and Edwards.
Strangely, on the face of it, if one adds all of those counted as "undecided" in the latest polls to the Obama vote then the polls seem closer to reality.

The opinion poll results:

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