Hawaii democratic caucus and the result

Update ( 01.23am local): (100% reporting):
Obama (28347) 76%, Clinton (8835) 24%
Update ( 11.37pm local): (68% reporting): Obama (20974) 76%, Clinton (6529) 24%
Update (10.10pm local): (30% reporting): Obama (5436) 74%, Clinton (1875) 25%
Update (9.25pm local): (10% reporting): Obama (2258) 77%, Clinton (666) 23%
Update (Feb. 19): Obama's internal projections last week had him winning 52% to 47%.
Update (19Feb):Democratic Party officials predict heavy turnout at 68 caucus sites statewide, from rural farm houses to urban high schools. Only about 4,000 people participated in the party caucus four years ago.Officials have ordered extra ballots as a precaution, and some worry that even those may not be enough for everyone.Anyone who signs up as a member of the Democratic Party, even at the caucus itself, will be eligible to participate.
Caucus turnout has never exceeded 5,000 but party officials believe that figure could double tonight and could reach as high as 12,000. Local volunteers for Barack Obama are suggesting that turnout could even climb into the 15,000 to 18,000 range, which would likely overwhelm party volunteers conducting the presidential preference poll. Voting is scheduled between 7 and 7:30 p.m. at a minimum but the party will accept ballots from people who are in line to register to vote, sign a party membership card, or mark a ballot by 7:30 p.m. Party officials said that more than 1,200 people had joined the party in the weeks before Super Tuesday. But an additional 5,000 people have since signed up as the caucuses became relevant to the Democratic presidential nomination. (more...)

(29 delegates at stake). Local volunteers for Clinton believe she may be stronger outside of urban Honolulu and on the Neighbor Islands, where traditional Democrats and labor unions appear to have more influence. Most of the grassroots activity and energy, however, are behind Obama, who was born in Hawaii and graduated from Punahou School. Higher caucus turnout would generally favor Obama. (more...)

A nice graphical presentation of what is going on.

New Greek restaurant in Wakiki-Hawaii

A piece on news from Hawaii: Famed British Restaurant/Nightclub owner Oliver Bengough of Mint Group London has joined forces with local Entrepreneurs Francois Provenza and Mitch Berger, to bring authentic Greek food with a Mediterranean twist to Hawaii with their new restaurant concept “The Fat Greek”.

The first Fat Greek restaurant is serving lunch and dinner at the corner of Waialae and St. Louis in Kaimuki. The one hundred seat restaurant includes garden dining. Offerings include great daily specials such as authentic Moussaka and Rack of Lamb.

“Our Desire is to introduce the fresh healthy aspect of Mediterranean cuisine to Hawaii” Bengough describes. “There are great similarities that already exist between Greek and Local style foods. We want to emphasize some of the spices and flavors that make this food both interesting and delicious.”

Obama vs Clinton

Update (20 Feb. 08): In campaign contests so far, Barack Obama has polled the best among black, more wealthy and educated voters and college students, while rival Hillary Clinton has been able to count on women, low-income voters and blue-collar workers. But in early exit polls tonight, Obama held Clinton to a virtual tie among Wisconsin Democratic primary voters who said they have a union member in their household — 50 percent for Clinton to 49 percent for Obama — and actually edged her among women, 51 percent to 49 percent. Clinton held a narrow advantage over Obama among Catholic poll respondents — who made up 43 percent of voters interviewed — 51 percent to 48 percent. She also held narrow leads among voters with only a high school education, people 60 or older and those making between $15,000-$30,000 a year. But Obama kept those margins close and took easy wins among his traditional base of supporters. Among voters 49 years old and younger he had a significant 64-39 percent advantage over Clinton. College-educated voters, who made up 72 percent of those polled, favored him 59 percent to 39 percent. Obama had a slight edge among voters who called themselves Democrats — 50 percent to 49 percent — but overwhelmingly topped Clinton among the 27 percent of respondents who called themselves independents, taking 63 percent of their votes to Clinton's 36 percent. (more...)

It looks as though things are going to get nasty in the Democratic party.
The following post is base on articles in the San Francisco Chronicle, the BBC web, and the NYT today.

(John Zogby of Zogby International). At this time of writing, the two candidates are nearly tied among pledged delegates, and even if Obama wins all of the remaining states with 55% of the vote, he still falls short of the 2,025 total delegates he needs to secure the nomination. Meanwhile, Clinton would continue to rack up almost the same number of delegates based on proportional voting.And if negative (or at least not glowing) stories begin to appear in rapid succession, will his supporters still be so enthusiastic?

Bob Gardner, a veteran political ad man and Republican who has worked with candidates including Gerald Ford and Dick Cheney, said the shifting momentum has turned the race between Clinton, once considered the indomitable leader, and Obama, the former upstart, into an entirely new kind of competition."It's Mac versus PC, Starbucks versus Dunkin' Donuts, Leno versus Letterman," said Gardner, who heads San Francisco-based The Advocacy Group, a crisis communications, corporate and political ad shop. "Hillary is a candidate; Obama is a movement."
But unless there's a shift in the "big mo," it may be that the best scenario for a Clinton nomination may come down to "you hope the other side screws up," he said. "That's a pretty thin reed on which to base a prospect of success."
"I just don't see how the numbers work for her," longtime Democratic consultant Garry South said. "She would have to win 65 percent victories" in most of the big remaining states to surpass Obama in delegates "and get to where she needs to be to win.""The momentum isn't with her," said South, the former senior adviser to California Gov. Gray Davis. "It's an indefinable factor in a political campaign - but an important one."
Adam Mendelsohn, a longtime adviser to California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, said being on the downside of political momentum is "like flying a plane. When you go into a tailspin like this, the question is: Do you have enough time to pull yourself out?""Barack Obama controls it now," Mendelsohn said of the presidential campaign field. "He has the strength, the money and he has the front-runner status. He controls his fate. It may not be up to her to change it."
Mrs. Clinton’s advisers acknowledged that it would be difficult for her to catch up in the race for pledged delegates even if she succeeded in winning Ohio and Texas in three weeks and Pennsylvania in April. They said the Democratic Party’s rules, which award delegates relatively evenly among the candidates based on the proportion of the vote they receive, would require her to win by huge margins in those states to match Mr. Obama in delegates won through voting.
Now she would have to beat Mr. Obama by more than 20 percentage points in order to pick up a majority of delegates in both states.
Mr. Plouffe said by his count, Mr. Obama had won 14 states by a margin of over 20 percentage points or more; Mrs. Clinton has won two states by that margin.
In Texas, Mr. Penn said Mrs. Clinton would be helped by the Latino vote — which he said could ultimately be as much as 40 percent of the electorate.But Mrs. Clinton faces another problem there in the form of that state’s unusual delegation allocation rules. Delegates are allocated to state senatorial districts based on Democratic voter turn-out in the last election. Bruce Buchanan, a professor of political science at the University of Texas at Austin, noted that in the last election, turnout was low in predominantly Hispanic districts and unusually high in urban African-American districts. That means more delegates will be available in districts that, based on the results so far, could be expected to go heavily for Mr. Obama. Mrs. Clinton, Dr. Buchanan said, “has got her work cut out for her.”
The projected delegate count by the Associated Press puts Obama ahead of Clinton, 1275 to 1220 - with 2,025 delegates needed to win the Democratic presidential nomination.
A delegate count by The New York Times, including projections from caucuses where delegates have not yet been chosen, showed Mr. Obama with a 113-delegate lead over Mrs. Clinton: 1,095 to 982.
Delegate counts by other news organizations and by the campaigns showed somewhat different results, reflecting the difficulty of trying to make exact delegate counts at this point in the process. The figures do not include superdelegates.
Mr. Obama’s campaign said that he had a lead of 1,139 to 1,003; by the count of the Clinton campaign organization, Mr. Obama was doing even better: 1,141 to 1,004 for Mrs. Clinton.

Wisconsin Primary: the latest polls and the result

Update (Feb. 20, 08): (with 95% reporting): Obama 58%, Clinton 41%.
Update (Feb. 19, 08): Obama's internal projections last week had him winning 53% to 46%, and in Hawaii 52% to 47%.
Update (Feb. 18, 08):A poll released today from Public Polling Policy gives Obama a 13-point lead over Hillary in tomorrow's primary. Obama leads 49%-45% among core Democrats, and does better than 2-1 against Hillary Clinton among independents and Republicans likely to vote in the Dem primary. Also, American Research Group, which had Clinton ahead in Wisconsin earlier this week, now givesObama a 10-point lead, 52-42. (more...)
Update (Feb. 16, 08): Research 2000 (02/13-02/14). Obama 47%, Clinton 42%
Update (Feb. 15, 08): Rasmussen (02/13-02/13). Obama 47%, Clinton 43%
Strategic Vision: (02/08-02/10) Obama 45%, Clinton 41%,
Univ. of WI: (11/27-12/05) Obama 26%, Clinton39%
(Feb. 19, 92 delegates at stake)

Other related links:
Texas primary: The latest polls
Ohio primary
Wisconsin primary
Hawaii democratic caucus
Obama Vs Clinton
Delegates and popular vote (so far)
Game over for Hillary?
Checking the voting machines
Obama vs McCain
How California deligates are selected
The "eyes" of the future President in the US
The three H of John Edwards
Ralph Nader running again?
McCain on Israel

Game over for Hillary?

It looks as though, after Maine, game is over. (Hillary's campaign expected a comfortable win. And they lost huge)! With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Obama was leading Hillary 59% to 40%!.

Clinton also, replaced her campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle with longtime adviser Maggie Williams, her campaign announced Sunday.

Joe Trippi, an adviser to former Democratic contender John Edwards, said Sunday that Obama had "a full head of steam" after Saturday's wins and was poised to win this week's "Potomac Primaries" in Maryland, the District of Columbia and Virginia. "It's hard to see a win for Sen. Clinton into March, into Ohio and Texas, which I think was what they're counting on," Trippi told CBS' "Face the Nation." "But even that's in jeopardy, I think, as Obama builds some momentum here."

Update (Feb 13, 07): BBC web today posted an article by almost the same title (Game over?).
Update (Feb 25, 07): Robert Novak also takes the same view.

McCain on Israel

(From Rosner's Blog) There's been a lot of talk lately about John McCain's problem with the more conservative (and religious) right wing of the Republican Party.
The problem he has is clear: How does one win over the more radical wing of his party without alienating the more centrist voters on which one relies to help him win not just the nomination but also the general election. McCain is using a couple of tools as to try and achieve this goal. One of them, and not a marginal one, is the State of Israel.
Senator Joe Lieberman is playing a role here. The staunchest Jewish supporter McCain has, Lieberman can promise both Jews and Evangelical voters that McCain is the candidate who will not abandon Israel (no wonder some people still think Lieberman is McCain's top pick for Vice President).
Lieberman also says that McCain understands how significant the establishment of the state of Israel was. He is an avid reader of history and also has "a sense of history." He is familiar with the story of the country. He will not do anything that will "compromise Israel's security." Lieberman has real confidence in McCain, a "total comfort level" because "I know this man."

The Palestinian population

(from Haaretz) The Palestinian population in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem rose approximately 30 percent over the last ten years, reaching 3.76 million, up from 2.89 million, according to census results released Saturday.
Only 208,000 Palestinians were counted in Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem, which is sought by the Palestinians as a future capital, said Luay Shabaneh, head of the Palestinian Central Statistics Bureau.
Demographics play a crucial role in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, with higher population figures potentially bolstering Palestinian territorial demands.
The unexpectedly low figure for east Jerusalem - it fell even below an estimate of 210,000 in the 1997 census - was immediately challenged by Palestinian politicians. In 1997, census-takers were barred by Israel from going door-to-door and based their result on projections. This time, census volunteers conducted an actual count, working discretely to avoid confrontations with Israeli authorities, Shabaneh said. (more...)

Yahoo will reject Microsoft's takeover bid

Yahoo Inc.'s board will spurn Microsoft Corp's $44.6 billion merger proposal, a source familiar with the matter told the SFChronicle today.
The rejection, to be officially delivered in a letter to Microsoft on Monday, adds a dramatic twist to the takeover saga, which would combine two technology industry giants.
Yahoo's decision keeps the Sunnyvale company independent, at least for now. In the past, executives made no secret of their desire for the company to remain intact, but disappointing earnings and a depressed stock price have made their Web portal an enticing acquisition target. (more...)

Obama has advantage in head-to-head with McCain

An analysis by the CNN yesterday that I agree with.

Two polls this month have asked registered voters nationwide how they would vote if the choice were between McCain and Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton.
A CNN poll, conducted by the Opinion Research Corporation February 1-3, shows Clinton three points ahead of McCain, 50 percent to 47 percent. That's within the poll's margin of error of 3 percentage points, meaning that the race is statistically tied.
A Time magazine poll, conducted February 1-4, also shows a dead heat between Clinton and McCain. Each was backed by 46 percent of those polled.
In the CNN poll, Obama leads McCain by 8 points, 52 percent to 44 percent. That's outside the margin of error, meaning that Obama has the lead.
And in the Time poll, Obama leads McCain by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent -- a lead also outside of the poll's margin of error of 3 percentage points.
In both polls, Obama looks stronger than Clinton. Why?
Clinton does have higher negatives than Obama -- and McCain. Forty-four percent of the public say they don't like Clinton, compared with 36 percent who don't like McCain and 31 percent who don't like Obama, according to the CNN poll conducted February 1-3.
Why does Obama do better against McCain than Clinton? Obama does do a little better than Clinton with independents and Republicans. But the big difference is men: Men give McCain an 18-point lead over Clinton, 57 percent to 39 percent, according to the CNN poll. The margin of error for that question was plus or minus 5 percentage points.
But if McCain and Obama went head to head, McCain's lead among men shrinks to three, 49 percent to 46 percent -- statistically a tie.
Women, on the other hand, vote for either Clinton or Obama by similar margins.
Some Democrats may be worried about how Obama will fare with white voters. Whites give McCain a 15-point lead over Clinton, (56 percent for McCain, 41 percent for Clinton).But Obama actually fares better than Clinton with white voters. McCain still leads, but by a smaller margin, (52 to 43 percent). Obama argues that he can reach across party lines. And he does do a little better than Clinton with Independents and Republicans, at least in these polls.
But the big difference is that Clinton doesn't draw very well with men. Obama does.

Blog posted a 'black list' of 162 Jewish professors

(ANSA) - Rome, February 8 - Interior Minister Giuliano Amato on Friday ordered a probe to verify the existence of an Internet blog which posted a 'black list' of 162 Jewish university professors in Italy who the blog accused of creating a lobby. The 162 professors are employed at Rome's La Sapienza university and universities in other Italian cities. (more...)

According to the AP news agency, the Internet service provider, meanwhile, pulled the site off line.

Extreme motherhood

One of the strangest meal-times in the animal kingdom has been caught on film by a BBC crew. The team recorded footage of a female worm-like amphibian, called a caecilian, allowing her young to peel off and eat her skin.

Scientists have only recently discovered this bizarre parental behaviour. The female caecilian's skin becomes thicker and more nutrient-rich when she bears offspring. And the young have specialised teeth for tearing and removing it. The footage was recorded for the BBC One series Life In Cold Blood. The crew was able to catch this behaviour on camera by building a set which resembled the shallow, humid underground chambers that the creatures live in. It took several attempts to capture the footage; the caecilian babies would only eat their mother's skin for about 10 minutes, once every three days, and often at night.

"Yummy mummy" filmed feeding young her skin

One of the strangest meal-times in the animal kingdom

Schooling at five

Do children start school at too young an age in England? Is childhood freedom being curtailed too soon?
Compared to most other western European countries, English pupils are extremely early starters in the classroom.While compulsory education begins in England at the age of five (with many children actually starting at four), in countries such as Sweden, Denmark and Finland, school doesn't begin until the age of seven. English children are ploughing through a fixed curriculum while their continental counterparts are still ploughing up the kindergarten sandpit or playing at home... (more)

Electing a president in the US and a prime minister in the UK

...One day, Martians will land in Virginia, Florida or California and scratch their green bald heads over the Byzantine system of primaries, caucuses and conventions. Not to mention the super-delegates, whose very existence seems to be an insult to democracy.
But then they will travel to Britain, where the choosing of a prime minister was hatched over mozzarella di bufala in an Italian restaurant in a place called Islington and then completed many years later, when Gordon replaced Tony without so much as a single vote being counted or cast.

from an article by Matt Frei of the BBC.

Primaries defy pundits, pollsters

In this weird presidential campaign, almost everything has turned out opposite from what pollsters and pundits predicted...
An article by Victor Davis Hanson, a classicist and historian at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

Obama wins Super Tuesday

In a surprise twist after a chaotic Super Tuesday, Barack Obama passed Hillary Clinton in network tallies of the number of delegates the candidates racked up last night.
The Obama camp now projects topping Clinton by 13 delegates, 847 to 834.
NBC News, which is projecting delegates based on the Democratic Party's complex formula, figures Obama will wind up with 840 to 849 delegates, versus 829 to 838 for Clinton.
Clinton was portrayed in many news accounts as the night’s big winner, but Obama’s campaign says he wound up with a higher total where it really counts — the delegates who will choose the party’s nominee at this summer’s Democratic convention.
With the delegate count still under way, NBC News said Obama appears to have won around 840 delegates in yesterday’s contests, while Clinton earned about 830 — “give or take a few,” Tim Russert, the network’s Washington bureau chief, said on the “Today” show.
The running totals for the two, which includes previous contests and the party officials known as “superdelegates,” are only about 70 delegates apart, Russert said.

(from here).

Checking the voting machines. Phil Stark's new method

Philip Stark a UC Berkeley statistics professor has developed a new method to better determine the accuracy of voting results, a formula which will be used in some counties today.
"There was previously no method of auditing that certified that you got the right answer," Stark said.
The method takes a random sample of precincts and tests to see whether each precinct's margin of error between the computer's count and a manual count is small enough to be considered insignificant.
"What we are basically trying to see is whether there are a large amount of samples with a small enough error," he said.
Before this method, it was difficult to ensure that counts provided a reliable level of confidence, Stark said.
Stark's method came after Bowen commissioned a statewide Post-Election Audit Standards Working Group in order to develop a way to improve the accuracy of election counts.
While no future plans have been developed for his method, Stark said it is currently in the experimental phase.
"We're just testing to see if the results are feasible," Stark said.

more here and here

California Primaries 2008. The latest results

The latest results:

Democratic Party 96.7% ( 22352 of 23109 ) precincts reporting as of Feb 6, 2008, at 10:30 a.m.
Obama 1,698,048 (42.4%) , Clinton 2,079,707 (51.9%).

Republican Party 96.9% ( 22397 of 23109 ) precincts reporting as of Feb 6, 2008, at 10:40 a.m.
McCain 962,852 (42.1%), Romney 776,614 (34%), Huckabee 263,681 (11.6%)

Democratic Party 88.3% ( 20422 of 23109 ) precincts reporting as of Feb 6, 2008, at 5:44 a.m.

Barack Obama

1,552,536

41.9 %

Hillary Clinton

1,934,697

52.2 %

Republican Party 88.3% ( 20422 of 23109 ) precincts reporting as of Feb 6, 2008, at 5:49 a.m.

John McCain

906,332

42.1 %

Mitt Romney

721,654

33.6 %

Mike Huckabee

246,734

11.5 %

Republican Primaries 2008. A summary of super Tuesday

John McCain seized command of the race for the Republican presidential nomination early Wednesday, winning delegate-rich primaries from the East Coast to California. McCain's victory in the Golden State dealt a crushing blow to his closest pursuer, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

In the competition that counted the most, the Arizona senator had 570 delegates, nearly half of the 1,191 needed for the nomination - and far ahead of his rivals (Romney has 251 and Huckabee175).

Even so, Romney and Huckabee said they were staying in the race.

Polling place interviews with voters suggested subtle shifts in the political landscape.

For the first time this year, McCain ran first in a few states among self-identified Republicans. As usual, he was running strongly among independents. Romney was getting the votes of about four in 10 people who described themselves as conservative. McCain was wining about one-third of that group, and Huckabee about one in five.

McCain, the early Republican front-runner whose campaign nearly unraveled six months ago, won in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Missouri, Delaware and his home state of Arizona - each of them winner-take-all primaries. He also pocketed victories in Oklahoma and Illinois.

Huckabee, won a series of Bible Belt victories, in Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee as well as his own home state of Arkansas. He also triumphed at the Republican West Virginia convention.

Romney won a home state victory in Massachusetts. He also took Utah, where fellow Mormons supported his candidacy. His superior organization produced caucus victories in North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Alaska and Colorado.

Nine of the Republican contests were winner take all, and that was where McCain piled up his lead.

Democrats and Republicans alike said the economy was their most important issue. Democrats said the war in Iraq ranked second and health care third. Republican primary voters said immigration was second most important after the economy, followed by the war in Iraq.

The survey was conducted in 16 states by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for The Associated Press and television networks.

Democratic primaries 2008. A summary of Super Tuesday

Clinton and Obama traded victories in an epic struggle with no end in sight. Clinton won Super Tuesday's biggest state, California, in the Democratic campaign, capitalizing on backing from Hispanic voters. Obama fashioned victories in Alabama and Georgia on the strength of black support.

Neither Clinton nor Obama proclaimed overall victory on a Super Tuesday that sprawled across 22 states, and with good reason. Obama won 13 states and Clinton eight plus American Samoa. But with victories in New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts, the Clinton led narrowly in the early tabulation of delegates for the night.

Missouri was so close that although Obama won the vote count it was likely to be hours before it became clear whether he or his rival had captured a majority of the state's 72 delegates.

The Democratic caucuses in New Mexico remained unsettled. Clinton had a 117-vote lead when the party shut down its vote counting operation until 11 a.m. EST.

Polling place interviews with voters suggested subtle shifts in the political landscape.

Overall, Clinton was winning only a slight edge among women and white voters, groups that she had won handily in earlier contests, according to preliminary results from interviews with voters in 16 states leaving polling places.

Obama was collecting the overwhelming majority of votes cast by blacks - a factor in victories in Alabama and Georgia.

Clinton's continued strong appeal among Hispanics - she was winning nearly six in 10 of their votes - was a big factor in her California triumph, and in her victory in Arizona, too.

Clinton won at home in New York as well as in California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Arizona and Arkansas. She also won the caucuses in American Samoa.

Obama won Connecticut, Georgia, Alabama, Delaware, Utah and his home state of Illinois. He prevailed in caucuses in North Dakota, Minnesota, Kansas, Idaho, Alaska and Colorado.

The allocation of delegates lagged the vote count by hours. That was particularly true for the Democrats, who divided theirs roughly in proportion to the popular vote.

Overall, Clinton had 760 delegates to 693 for Obama, out of the 2,025 needed to secure victory at the party convention in Denver. Clinton's advantage is partly due to her lead among so-called superdelegates, members of Congress and other party leaders who are not selected in primaries and caucuses - and who are also free to change their minds.

Alabama and Georgia gave Obama three straight Southern triumphs. Like last month's win in South Carolina, they were powered by black votes.

Democrats and Republicans alike said the economy was their most important issue. Democrats said the war in Iraq ranked second and health care third. Republican primary voters said immigration was second most important after the economy, followed by the war in Iraq.

The survey was conducted in 16 states by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for The Associated Press and television networks.

Already, the campaigns were looking ahead to Feb. 9 contests in Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington state and Feb. 12 primaries in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia. And increasingly, it looked like the Democrats' historic race between a woman and a black man would go into early spring, possibly longer.

Obama and Clinton spent an estimated $20 million combined to advertise on television in the Feb 5 states.

Obama spent $11 million, running ads in 18 of the 22 states with Democratic contests. Clinton ran ads in 17, for a total of $9 million.

The 2008 California Democratic Primary

Sen. Hillary Clinton is the projected Democratic Party winner in California.
The turnout in California was so heavy that in at least one county, Alameda, several precincts remained open after the scheduled close of 8 p.m. because of long lines and shortages of ballots.
But even with Clinton apparently taking the state, it's not clear how many delegates she might receive. Election Day ballots are expected to be tallied late into the night and Wednesday morning, while the allotment of delegates may take days more.
Voter interest in the primary was at a historic high, according to a Field Poll released this morning, and the large number of voters, many of whom are using slower-to-count paper ballots - because California's Secretary of State required many counties to abandon what were regarded as unreliable electronic machines - could delay results for days or even weeks.
Los Angeles, the state's most populous county, said they may not have precinct ballots counted until 4 a.m. Wednesday, and many absentee voters - about 2 million - are expected to drop off their ballots at polling stations today, further delaying the count.

more

The Turing award 2007 (partly) to a Greek

The Turing Award, the Nobel Prize of computing has been won by Edmund Clarke (CMU), E. Allen Emerson (UT at Austin) and Joseh Sifakis (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/CARNOT Institute) for research on Model Checking. The citation reads: For their role in developing Model-Checking into a highly effective verification technology, widely adopted in the hardware and software industries.
Their innovations transformed this approach from a theoretical technique to a highly effective verification technology that enables computer hardware and software engineers to find errors efficiently in complex system designs. This transformation has resulted in increased assurance that the systems perform as intended by the designers. The Turing Award, named for British mathematician Alan M. Turing, carries a $250,000 prize, with financial support provided by Intel Corporation and Google Inc. Clarke of Carnegie Mellon University, and Emerson of the University of Texas at Austin, working together, and Sifakis, working independently for the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique at the University of Grenoble in France, developed this fully automated approach that is now the most widely used verification method in the hardware and software industries.
For more information here. As one can see in the link, Joseph Sifakis is the founder of Verimag Laboratory, a leading research center for embedded systems in Grenoble, France, where he was director from 1993-2006. He is Research Director of Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, and Director of the CARNOT Institute on Intelligent Software and Systems in Grenoble. Dr. Sifakis is a member of the editorial board of several journals, and the scientific coordinator of the Artist2 and ArtistDesign European Networks of Excellence on Embedded Systems Design. He is co-founder with Edmund Clarke, Robert Kurshan, and Amir Pnueli of the International Conference on Computer Aided Verification (CAV). He earned a degree in electrical engineering from the Technical University of Athens and a Ph.D. in computer science from the University of Grenoble.

Note: (About the A.M. Turing Award) The A.M. Turing Award was named for Alan M. Turing, the British mathematician who articulated the mathematical foundation and limits of computing, and who was a key contributor to the Allied cryptanalysis of the German Enigma cipher during World War II. Since its inception in 1966, the Turing Award has honored the computer scientists and engineers who created the systems and underlying theoretical foundations that have propelled the information technology industry. For additional information, click on http://www.acm.org/awards/taward.html .

How California Delegates Are Selected for the 2008 Democratic National Convention

California will send the largest delegation--441 delegates and 62 alternates to the convention-- split as evenly as possible between men and women.
241 of California’s 441 delegates are elected based on the share of the vote the candidates for President receive in the 53 Congressional Districts. Only 81 delegates are elected “at-large” and go to the winner of the statewide vote.
The remaining 119 delegates are selected (not elected). These include 66 “super delegates” (Members of Congress, Democratic National Committee (DNC) Members, and a former DNC Chair). Also 48 Pledged Party Leaders / Elected Officials (PLEOs) committed to candidates who receive at least 15% of the statewide vote and apportioned by their share of the vote. Another 5 are also appointed who are “unpledged” to any candidate. There will be 3 to 7 delegates allocated in each of California’s 53 Congressional Districts (CDs).
In addition, 40 CDs will each get 1 Alternate. Delegates are allocated to each Presidential candidate who receives 15% or more of the vote in any CD on February 5, 2008.
for more here.

Califonia democratic primary: The latest polls

A startling surge of support for Barack Obama has catapulted the Illinois senator into a virtual tie with Hillary Rodham Clinton in California's Democratic presidential primary, a Field Poll released Saturday shows.The Democratic numbers are the shocker. Clinton, a longtime California favorite, saw her once-commanding lead slip to two percentage points, 36 to 34 percent, in the new survey. That's down from the New York senator's 12 percentage point lead in mid-January and a 25 percentage point margin over Obama in October.
But with 18 percent of Democratic voters still undecided just days before Tuesday's primary, the election is still up for grabs, said Mark DiCamillo, the poll's director.
The head-to-head matchups between the Republican and Democratic candidates highlight both Clinton's loosening hold on California voters and McCain's growing strength in the state.
Clinton now clings to a bare 45 to 43 percent lead over McCain in a projected California presidential vote, down dramatically from her 17 percentage point margin just two weeks ago. Obama now holds a stronger 47 to 40 percent margin over the Arizona senator, but that's only half the 14 percentage point advantage he had in mid-January.
Obama's California campaign team said the latest polls reflect a hard-charging effort to track down potential voters in every precinct - undeterred by polls that showed the Illinois senator behind by double digits here for most of the race.The new poll shows why Obama's campaign has been targeting decline-to-state voters, who can cast ballots in the Democratic primary. While Clinton has a 37 to 31 percent lead over Obama among Democrats, Obama leads by an overwhelming 54 to 32 percent among nonpartisans, who will make up an estimated 13 percent of the primary voters.
The poll also highlights the dramatic split the Clinton-Obama battle has caused in the state's Democratic Party. Rich versus poor, young versus old, liberal versus conservative, men versus women: Each of those groups has lined up on different sides of the primary divide.
While people aged 18 to 29 back Obama by a margin of 11 percentage points, voters 65 and older support Clinton, 40 to 18 percent. Voters with household incomes of $40,000 or less back Clinton by an advantage of 11 percentage points, while those making $80,000 or more are strong Obama supporters.
Obama attracts voters who call themselves liberal, who have gone to graduate school and who are from the Bay Area, which backs him 41 to 31 percent. Clinton's strength is among conservatives and moderates, those with a high school education and residents of sprawling Los Angeles County, where she holds a 42 to 34 percent lead.
There's also a broad ethnic and gender gap between the campaigns. While white voters are split evenly between Clinton and Obama, the Illinois senator, whose late father was a black African, has a 55 to 19 percent lead among black voters, while Latinos back Clinton 52 to 19 percent.
Among men, Obama holds a 13 percentage point lead, the same advantage Clinton holds among women.
But for Clinton, even her good numbers show some ominous changes. In mid-January, the Field Poll showed her with a 19 percentage point lead among women and a huge 59 to 19 percent advantage with Latino voters. In two weeks, much of that backing has melted away.
While part of the reason for the huge number of undecided voters is last week's departure of John Edwards from the race, most of it seems to be honest angst among Democrats pressed to make a choice between two favored candidates, DiCamillo said.
"This is the Democratic rank and file having a hard time making a choice, because they like them both," he said.
The poll was based on a telephone survey of 511 likely voters in the Democratic primary and was conducted between Jan. 25 and Feb. 1. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points among Democrats, and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points among general election voters.
More in the San Francisco Chronicle.

All the latest polls:
Updated: February 5. This is unbelievable! One of the two late polls gives Obama ahead by 13%, and the other Clinton by 10%!!! There are certainly questions about their methodology.

Marine Corps recruiting center in Downtown Berkeley and the power of money

Members of the Berkeley City Council showed their opposition to a Marine Corps recruiting office in Downtown Berkeley on January 30.
Council members supported the two resolutions-one supporting anti-war protests and the other criticizing military recruitment practices-citing opposition to the war in Iraq, deceptive recruitment practices and the right to protest.
Code Pink, a national anti-war grassroots organization, will be granted a parking spot for their regular Wednesday afternoon protests and will not need to apply for a sound permit for the next six months, under one resolution.
The other resolution more directly criticizes the presence of the center in Berkeley. The city manager was directed to send a letter to the U.S. Marine Corps saying they are "uninvited and unwelcome intruders" in the city. In addition, the city attorney has been directed to investigate whether the city's anti-discrimination laws can be enforced at the center, based on the military's consideration of sexual orientation in hiring.
The City Council's decision echoes mounting opposition to military recruitment in the Berkeley.

However, what started with a set of resolutions against the Marine Corps recruiting center in Downtown Berkeley has escalated into a national controversy and caused the mayor to revisit the resolutions' intentions. United States Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., said Thursday he will introduce legislation that would strip $2,392,000 in earmarked spending for at least six projects in Berkeley from a Senate appropriations bill. This includes $975,000 for UC Berkeley's Matsui Center on Politics and Public Service and $750,000 for a planned ferry service in Berkeley.

"This is a slap in the face to all brave service men and women and their families," DeMint said in a statement. "The First Amendment gives the city of Berkeley the right to be idiotic, but from now on they should do it with their own money."
Berkeley Mayor Tom Bates, who voted for the resolutions against the center, said that the council supports the troops, but said that they hope to see the war end as soon as possible.

In an effort to retain their funding, the campus plans to contact DeMint and inform him that the city and the campus are separate institutions, and inform him about the campus' ROTC program, said UC Berkeley spokesperson Marie Felde. "We are hopeful that when he has the facts he will rethink his position," she said.
(For more details, see the daily Californian).

Update: (09Feb. 88). It took a week for the story to make the news with CNN.
Update (Feb 13, 08). After a large-scale protest outside City Council chambers that began early yesterday morning, the Berkeley City Council decided not to send an apology to the Marine Corps but rather to make clear their support for members of the military.

An opinion about the polls in the 2008 US primaries

From the op-ed of Frank Rich in today's NYT.

As Tuesday’s vote looms, all that’s certain is that today’s pollsters and pundits have so far gotten almost everything wrong. Mr. McCain’s campaign had been declared dead. Mrs. Clinton has gone from invincible to near-death to near-invincible again. Mr. Obama was at first not black enough to sweep black votes and then too black to get a sizable white vote in South Carolina.

The "eyes" of the future president in the US

The way a person looks at you is the outer expression of their character. For me, what a person's eyes "say" is almost as important as what their mouth says.
Looking at the picture (from cnn) of the US presidential candidates, I go for Obama and Huckabee. Don't you?

The three H of John Edwards

The NYT published an article explaining the reasons of the abrupt withdrawal of John Edwards from the presidential race. Of the three H (his haircuts ($400), his house (28,000 square feet in Chapel Hill, N.C.) and the hedge fund)) the more serious, in my opinion, is the hedge fund where he worked after his 2004 loss (which invested in companies that foreclosed on mortgages of hurricane Katrina victims in New Orleans, the city Mr. Edwards was trying to make the emblem of his antipoverty work).

Ralph Nader running again in 2008?

The same day John Edwards exited the race, longtime consumer advocate Ralph Nader launched a presidential exploratory committee to decide whether to run as an independent candidate.
In an interview with Amy Goodman he explains, persuasively I think, why the argument that by doing so he is damaging the progressive movement is not a valid one.

Mandatory HIV test before marriage in India

India is moving fast, and not only economically.

A committee set up by the Indian state of Maharashtra has provisionally approved the mandatory HIV testing of couples before marriage. If the decision is made into law, Maharashtra would be the first state in the country to have such a scheme. India has one of the highest numbers of people with HIV in the world.

Here is the full story.

A message from John Edwards

Below is the message John Edwards sent to him supporters after annowncing that he suspended his campaign

Dear...

Let me start by saying, "Thank you." You have stood with Elizabeth and me throughout this campaign. Your support has sustained us as we have traveled across this country.
Earlier today, I suspended my campaign for the Democratic nomination for the presidency. I made this announcement from where our journey began just over 12 months ago: New Orleans.
I began my presidential campaign in New Orleans to remind the country that all of us -- as citizens and as a government -- have a moral responsibility to each other, and what we do together matters.
Now, it's time for me to step aside so that history can blaze its path. We do not know who will take the final steps to the White House -- but what we do know is that our Democratic Party will make history.
And, along the way, all of you who have been involved in this campaign and this movement for change and this cause, I am asking you to continue speaking out for those who have no voice, just as Elizabeth and I will continue to do. We need you.

Do not turn away from the great struggles before us. Do not give up on the causes that we have fought for. Do not walk away from what's possible, because it's time for all of us -- all of us together -- to make the two one. We need you.I hope you will take a few moments to listen to the video clip of my speech in earlier this afternoon or to read it below.
In the meantime, Elizabeth and my family join me in thanking all of you for your support and for working so hard on my behalf. We are truly blessed to have such friends.

Thank you.

John Edwards

Edwards 'quits' White House race?

According to the BBC web site, John Edwards is exiting the race for the White House after failing to win any of the four party nomination contests held so far, officials say.
Members of his team said the former North Carolina senator had decided not to continue to Super Tuesday next week. He lost Iowa's caucuses, came third in New Hampshire, admitted getting his "butt kicked" in Nevada and came third in his native South Carolina. The two-time candidate reportedly plans to make a statement soon.
It is not yet clear if the 54 year-old will endorse either of the two current Democratic front-runners, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
His spokeswoman Colleen Murray told AFP news agency that Mr Edwards would publicly announce the end to his White House bid in New Orleans, where he formally launched his campaign in 2006. Mr Edwards's campaign website said he was scheduled to make a speech on poverty at a community project in the flood-ravaged Louisiana city on Wednesday 1300 local time (1900 GMT).

Siemens and the kickbacks in Greece

With reference to the above, I found the following in the Trend Capital news Agency:

In the last quarter, which counts as the first quarter of the Siemens financial year ending September 30, 2008, the company spent a further 127 million euros on the investigation and improving surveillance against bribery.
In a bid to find and punish the key executives behind the corrupt practices in Greece, Italy and other nations, Siemens investigators have offered an amnesty to smaller fish who reveal their role in the kickbacks.
Loescher said that 33 staff had applied for the amnesty. It had been granted to four and denied to two, and the rest of the cases were still being investigated.

The Florida primaries and the polls

The GOP results (99% reported): McCain 36% (693,425), Romney 31% (598,152), Giuliani 15%,(281,755), Huckabee 13% (259,703), Paul 3% (62,060), Thompson 1% (22,287).
Giuliani is expected to drop out of the race today and to endorse McCain.
It looks as though all the polls underestimated the votes of the winner (most of them outside the margin of error they themfelfs reported). The latest polls:


For the Democrats: Clinton 50% (856,944), Obama 33%, (568,930), Edwards 14% (248,545). The polls here got it right (more or less).

There were 1,925,728 voters who participated in the republican primary as opposed to 1,724,825 for the democrats. Although there are no deligates for the democrats, and there was a campaign boycott by all the Democratic candidates, this was the largest turnout for decades for the democrats. And this may be a good indication as to what is going to happen in November.

Video of Ted Kennedey's speech endorsing Barack Obama

The video of Ted Kennedy's speech endorsing Barack Obama can be found here.

Ted Kennedy endorsed Barack Obama

Senator Kennedy, in a very moving speech, just announced his support for Barack Obama.

For those of us who were undecided as to whom to support between Barack Obama and John Edwards, this endorcement tilts the balance.

Texas thief steals Greek Orthodox bishop's crown

Now, this is news! Another news for me is that there is a bishop who was an ex marine!

A thief has broken into a car in Texas and stolen a valuable crown and other items belonging to a visiting Greek Orthodox bishop from Colorado.
Metropolitan Isaiah, an ex-US marine who served in the Korean War, was dining with others at a restaurant when the thief smashed his car's window.
The gold and silver crown is believed to be worth up to $10,000 (£5,000). Also stolen was his Bible and a bag embroidered with his religious title, a gift from the widow of a fellow marine. Metropolitan Isaiah, who was the only priest at a Vespers service on Saturday night without a head covering, is offering a reward of at least $1,000 for the safe return of the crown stolen in Arlington. "We parked in a brightly lit place, and with all the lights there, we thought we were fine," he was quoted by the Dallas News as saying. "We came out at 10 o'clock, and the window was smashed." The symbolic crown, he said, was the first gift he had received as a bishop, 22 years earlier, and he felt "lost without it". Other items missing include the bishop's mobile phone and his clerical veil but the loss of the bag seemed to be a particularly hard blow. "It has my name on it, embroidered Metropolitan Isaiah, so who can use it?" Metropolitan Isaiah asked.According to his official biography, the ex-marine, whose official title is Metropolitan of Denver, entered a Massachusetts seminary in 1954 and became a bishop in 1986.

The result of the South Carolina Democratic Primary and the polls

The results (with 99% of the votes counted)
Obama 55.70% (295,091),
Clinton 26.64% (141,128),
Edwards 17.66% (93,552)
Voting in South Carolina was brisk, producing a record turn-out of more than 530,000. By comparison, the turn-out for the 2004 Democratic primary was 280,000.

All the polls, totally failed to predict Obama's support (they underestimated it by 13% (minimum) to 29% (maximum). Most of them were closer to the actual percentages of Clinton and Edwards.
Strangely, on the face of it, if one adds all of those counted as "undecided" in the latest polls to the Obama vote then the polls seem closer to reality.

The opinion poll results:

Public and private Universities in the US and financial aid

Α very interesting article by Robert J. Birgeneau, Chancellor of the University of California-Berkeley.

Harvard University focused the discussion on college costs with its bold announcement that it is extending financial aid to families earning from $120,000 to $180,000 a year. Costs for tuition, fees and room and board will be capped at about 10% of family income. Following Harvard's lead, Yale and other elite private universities are responding with various measures to extend financial aid to more students. The vast majority of Americans, however, are educated in public universities that cannot provide the financial aid packages of private universities with large endowments. Ironically, it could become more expensive for a student from a family of low or moderate means to attend a public university than for a student from a well-to-do family to attend a private college. The solution to this dilemma lies in new public-private partnerships to create endowments that will ensure access for all students, regardless of family income, to attend public universities. The situation at the University of California, Berkeley, where I am chancellor, is illustrative. The total cost of attending Berkeley is about $25,000 per year. That cost is much lower than the $45,000 typical of Harvard and similar institutions. Because many more Berkeley students need aid, and because sources are more limited, the price for our students can be significant. Harvard's new cutoff point for aid is a family income of $180,000 a year; Berkeley's is about $90,000. Consequently, a family with an income of $180,000 will pay $18,000 to attend Harvard, while one with an income of $90,000 pays about $25,000 to attend Berkeley. Ivy League institutions educate less than 1% of the U.S. college population, compared with 75% for public colleges and universities. Public universities have been the nation's single most powerful engine for prosperity for millions of students from middle- and low-income families. Yet, the costs of public education are growing rapidly. At Berkeley, a third of our students come from families with incomes less than $40,000 a year. These students qualify for federal Pell Grants to assist their education. The comparable percentage of Pell Grant students in wealthy elite private schools such as Harvard, Princeton and Yale is about 10%, and the absolute numbers are very small. For students from the poorest families, we provide a $17,000 grant, lowering the cost to $8,000 a year. But based on sources of aid, we project that in 10 years these students will have to contribute $16,000 or more. What are our options? Many politicians want to freeze or roll back tuition and fees. But this is the worst option for poor families. Tuition and fee increases generate additional funding for aid that insulates poor families and can help them cover other cost increases. In California, as in many states, if tuition and fees are frozen, then so is the amount of money available for financial aid. Public universities need a new model for financial aid. A public-private partnership in which state governments match private donations to endowments for needs-based financial aid would be most effective. As an extreme example, if each of Berkeley's 420,000 living alumni were to give a one-time donation of $1,000, and if that donation were matched by the state, an endowment could be created at Berkeley that would ensure access for the indefinite future for students from the poorest families as well as those from the middle class. Public education and universal access for our brightest students, irrespective of their ability to pay, has been one of the most important social concepts that has made America great. Financial aid for low- and middle-income students is one of the best investments we can make in our country's future.

Child adoption and homosexuality in France

Here is the story.
The European Court of Human Rights has ruled that France discriminated against a lesbian nursery school teacher by refusing to let her adopt a child. The judges decided that the woman was a victim of discrimination because of her sexual orientation.They said her right to family life under the European Convention on Human Rights had also been infringed. France has been told to pay her damages.
Nine European countries allow homosexuals to adopt children.
The court's ruling in Strasbourg on Tuesday noted that: "French law allowed single persons to adopt a child, thereby opening up the possibility of adoption by a single homosexual." The court criticised the French judiciary's emphasis on "the lack of a paternal referent in the household" in the case of the lesbian woman, who was identified only as E.B.

Albert Bowker passed away

Albert Hosmer Bowker, a former chancellor of the University of California, Berkeley, an expert in statistics and an innovative administrator during his decades-long career in higher education across the country, died Sunday in a retirement home in Portola Valley, Calif. He was 88 and had been suffering from pancreatic cancer.
Bowker was chancellor of UC Berkeley, which he called a "wild and wonderful place," from 1971 to 1980, a period largely defined by steady reductions in state funding, lingering student sentiment against the Vietnam War, and demonstrations against the university system’s investments in apartheid South Africa.
More about A. Bowker here.
One of his greater achievements is, in my opinion, that as an assistant professor of math and statistics at Stanford University (his first appointment in 1947) set up the Statistics Department and was its firt chair from 1948 to 1959.

Serbia: Presidential election 2008 (results)

22:35 Nikolic acknowledged electoral defeat and congratulated Tadic.

22:31TADIC51.6%, NIKOLIC 47.18% (according to Republican Election Commission on the basis of 56.87% of the votes counted).

22:16 TADIC 50.5%, NIKOLIC 47.9%, TURNOUT 67.6% (According to the first preliminary data of the Centre for Free Elections and Democracy (CeSID) ).

22:03 CeSID programme director Marko Blagojevic said that, on the basis of the processed electoral sample, it can be assessed that voters in Serbia have entrusted Boris Tadic with another mandate.

21:53 (19.53) NIKOLIC 49.45 % TADIC 48.75% (11.01% of the ballots counted)

21:39 Tadić 48,8, Nikolić 49,32

21:29 Tadić 50,5 Nikolić 47,9

Upadate: 03, feb 20:26 (18:26GMT) - Polls closed at 20.00 (18:00 GMT). According to the latest information 63% of the electorate voted (approx. 4.5 million people).

Upadate: 03, feb, 19:46 (17.46 GMT)- By 18.00 57.80% of of the electorate has voted , said Republic Election Commission deputy president Dejan Djurdjevic.

Upadate: 03, feb. 16.07GMT - According to the preliminary figures of the Center for Free Elections and Democracy (CeSID), around 51% of the electorate went to the polls by 1700 hours (1500GMT), which is around 3% more than at the same time in the first round.

Upadate: 03, feb. 2.54GMT. (From Tanjug): The second round of the presidential election in Serbia opened Sunday at 7 a.m. Voters in Serbia will choose beteween Tomislav Nikolic, deputy president of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) and Boris Tadic, leader of the Democratic Party (DS), whose names are listed in that order on voting slips. The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK) determined that there are a total of 6,723,762 registered voters in Serbia, about 15,000 more than in the first round, and 8481 polling stations. The turnout of the voters in the second round of the presidential election in Serbia by noon Sunday was 22.4%, about 1% more than in the first round at the same time, the Center for Free Elections and Democracy (CeSID) told Tanjug. About five percent of the voters go to the polls every hour, CeSID said.

updated: 2/2/08: the latest opinion polls for the second round, show Tadić ahead of Nikolić by a 2% margin. I don't trust the accuracy of the polls in predicting election results, so I will not be surprised if the final result is the other way around.
In the meantime, the TV debate of the two candidates on Wednesday had a record audience for an information political programme since ratings began in 2002. It registered 30% higher ratings than the debate of the same candidates ahead of the presidential elections in 2004 (2,200,000 viewers). On Wednesday evening the ratings share was 60%. (3,100,000) viewers.

21/1/08. According to the official Serbian news agency Tanjug's latest results (6.15am), Tomislav Nikolić of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) gets 39,57%, Boris Tadić of the Democratic Party (DS) 35,45% , Srbije Velimir Ilić of New Serbia (NS) 7,45%, Milutin Mrkonjic of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) 5.96% and Čedomir Jovanović of the Liberal Demoratic Party (LDP) 5,39% .
(The agency site in English has not been updated since yesterday evening).
I will try to post the final result on February 3.

The Nevada democratic caucus

Democratic party officials announced that more than 115,000 Democrats came out and participated. That compares with the 2004 caucuses, when about 9,000 voters joined in for the party’s caucuses.
Despite the support to Obama of the Clinary Union (a local union with 60000 members), Clinton won the popular vote. (Clinton 51%, Obama 45%, Edwards 4%). However, Obama won the majority of delegates (13 to 12 of Hillary). The math turns out to be a bit confusing, but the shorthand is this: The more populous Clark County, which Clinton won, awarded a even number of delegates, and Clinton and Obama split those down the middle. Meanwhile, the more rural areas, which Obama won, awarded an odd number of delegates, which gave Obama the edge.
It wasn't a High Noon quick draw that resolved the stalemate between Clinton and Obama - but a pack of cards. Under party rules, a pack was shuffled and a supporter from each camp asked to pick a card. Obama won both times. The quirk had little effect overall, and Mrs Clinton won the popular vote.The votes were tied after Saturday's caucuses by 26 votes each at a district in Genoa and 24-24 at Zephyr Cove near Lake Tahoe. At an elementary school in Genoa, caucus chairman Nancy Downey shuffled the pack of cards - which happened to have "Hillary" printed on the back - and spread them out on a table.Clinton supporter Greg Kuntz pulled out a five. An Obama supporter picked a king, clinching the vote, and securing an extra delegate to the next round of voting, when about 10,000 delegates meet at county level. "I drew the five to lose to the king," Mr Kuntz told the Associated Press. "Only in Nevada." Mr Obama's luck held in Zephyr Cove and his supporters again won the traditional Old West tiebreaker by picking a nine and trumping the Clinton camp's five.

The richest people in Asia

Forbes publishes such lists for different countries. Below are the links for China, India and Hong Kong.
China's 400 richest, Hong Kong's 40 richest, India's 40 richest.

Another failure of opinion polls in the US

The Michigan Republican primary was another instance that opinion polls seem to have failed in the US.
The result of the actual voting was
Romney: 39%, McCain: 30%, Huckabee: 16%, Paul: 6%, Thompson: 4%, Giuliani: 3%
and the results of the last polls were

Sarkozy to ban advertising from state television

Nicolas Sarkozy was accused of lining the pockets of his media tycoon friends and exerting a Berlusconi-style grip on the airwaves, after he announced a plan to ban advertising from public television and revolutionise French state TV along the lines of the BBC.
Sarkozy, who moves in a circle of wealthy television owners and press barons and counts "Télépresident" among his numerous nicknames, surprised even his own culture minister this week when he announced that adverts should be eliminated from France's five state TV stations in the name of a "cultural revolution in public service television" (From the Guardian.)

Sarkozy chooses Sen and Stiglitz to advise on growth

Economics Nobel Laureates Amartya Sen and Joseph Stiglitz have been handpicked by French President Nicolas Sarkozy to advise France on the way in which it calculates its growth, news reports said.
France has been planning to include factors like 'quality of life' into the measurement of its economic growth, instead of going by the traditional methods of calculating gross national product, ever since Sarkozy assumed power.
Sarkozy's election promises included freeing up the economy and introducing more reforms so as to provide better living standards for the French.
Amartya Sen will be an advisor the French government, while American Joseph Stiglitz will be chairman of the committee of experts appointed to oversee the reform process.
Although the quality of life in France is said to be very good, the rate of the nation's economic growth has remained stagnant for some time now.

Nigeria sues tobacco firms for 40 billion dollars

The Nigerian government is suing three leading tobacco companies (British American Tobacco Plc, Philip Morris International and International Tobacco Ltd, a Nigerian company), seeking more than 40 billion dollars (29 billion euros) in damages for the cost of treating smoking-related diseases, according to court papers obtained Wednesday.
"It is the first time ever that an African state files a case against a tobacco company. No other state in Africa has ever done it," Babatunde Irukera, the lawyer representing the government told AFP.
"The exact amount the federal government is claiming is 5.3 trillion naira," (42 billion dollars) he told AFP.
The suit accuses them of concealing the harmful nature of smoking and of promoting underage smoking.
"The amount is certainly high for Africa, but it is far lower than the amounts that have been claimed in the USA for example," Irukera said, adding that one US state had claimed 286 billion dollars compensation.
Irukera also represents Nigeria in its 6.5-billion-dollar suit against US pharmaceuticals company Pfizer Inc. for an alleged illegal drug trial.
The government is also seeking an injunction compelling the companies to stop the marketing and sale of cigarettes.
more here.
What I find amazing is that in the link I provide and in the same news item, Marlboro has a big ad!

The failure of polls in New Hampshire

The results of the Democratic part primary may be the biggest failure of opinion polls since 1948.
Is the large turnout the only reason?



and the results, so far: Clinton 39% , Obama 36%, Edwards 17%, Richardson 5%

Is Obama the Reagan, or the Thatcher, of the left?

A few more news items on Obama that, in my opinion, explain his success. The article, reveals remarkable similarities between Obama and Reagan/Thatcher.

From the SF Chronicle (6/1/08) (By Debra Saunders)
...Iowa Democrats clearly decided not to repeat the mistake of 2004. In 2004, caucus-goers, who opposed the war in Iraq, put their weight behind John Kerry, who had voted for the Iraq war resolution, because they believed that Kerry was the Democrat who could win in November. Instead, the Dems lost in the most painful way possible, having sold out utterly and compromised their principles -- with nothing to show for it.
Caucus-goers rejected Hillary Clinton's siren song of inevitability and John Edwards' slick populist themes, and instead lined up behind Barack Obama, the one top-tier candidate who opposed the war in Iraq when it was popular.
Clinton can say she's the change candidate, but that doesn't make it so. Both Clinton and Edwards voted for the Iraq war and voted for the Patriot Act -- when the polls told them to. They have stood for nothing with unshakable conviction, except their own advancement. Iowa caucus-goers went for the new guy, instead of the same old excuses.

From The Australian (7/1/08)
(Andrew Sullivan, The Times).
...The analogy that worries Republicans the most is a more recent one. Could Obama be a potential liberal version of Ronald Reagan? Could he do for the Democrats what Reagan did for the Republicans a quarter century ago? It's increasingly possible. Reagan was the cutting edge of the previous realignment in US politics. With a good-natured civil appeal to Democrats who felt abandoned by their party under Jimmy Carter, Reagan revolutionised the reach of his party.
He didn't aim for a mere plurality, as Bill Clinton did. Nor did he go for a polarising 51 per cent strategy, as George W. Bush has done. He ran as a national candidate in search of a national mandate, a proud Republican who nonetheless wanted Democrats to vote for him.
He came out of a period in which Americans had become sickened by the incompetence of their government. Reagan shocked US elites by pivoting that discontent into a victory in 1980. And by his second term, he won 49 out of 50 states.
You can see the same potential in Obama. What has long been remarkable to me is how this liberal politician fails to alienate conservatives. In fact, many like him a great deal. His calm and reasoned demeanour, his crisp style, his refusal to engage in racial identity politics: these appeal to disaffected Republicans.
He is particularly attractive to those on the US Right who feel betrayed by the Bush administration's version of conservatism, just as many Democrats felt betrayed by Carter's liberalism.These voters -- non-evangelical, fiscally and militarily prudent, socially tolerant -- do not feel at home in the angry, southern, anti-immigrant Republican Party of the past few years. Almost one-quarter of those voting in the Democratic caucus last Thursday night were Republicans or independents.The other strikingly Reaganite aspect to Obama is his appeal to the younger generation. People forget that the oldest president was extremely popular among the under-30s.
Obama has kept his ego in check, but he is clearly aiming for a large mandate rather than a small win. He isn't a Clinton in this respect or even a Bush. He is a Reagan, a Margaret Thatcher of the Left.

Newsweek on Obama

Newsweek, on the Jan.14, 2008 issue, has a cover story on Obama.
Here are some of the points that I found interesting.

-In public, Obama attributes his quick political rise to that "respectful tone," which he believes voters crave after so many ugly, dispiriting campaign seasons. (Which includes most races since 1800.) When he first began thinking about a White House bid, he told advisers that he would be willing to run only if he could do it his way, which meant defying the conventional campaign theology of hitting the other guy hard and first, sticking to simple sound bites and preaching only to the base. He has shown a willingness to stray from his script and risk engaging (or boring) audiences with rambling professorial explanations about the details of this or that policy. And he has tried to rewrite Karl Rove's campaign manual by reaching across racial and party lines to appeal to the broadest―rather than the very narrowest―base of supporters.
-In South Carolina—considered a critical primary for Obama, especially if he does not win or come in a close second in this week's New Hampshire primary—campaign workers have spent months recruiting barbers and hairdressers to preach the candidate's virtues to their customers.
-Although Obama's debate performances improved over time, his aides moaned whenever he gave long, discursive answers to simple questions instead of sticking to pithy sound bites that voters would remember.
-In the final three days in Iowa, Obama operatives made 150,000 phone calls to potential supporters.